Daily Analyses

11.12.2019

Fundamentals

Europe

The macroeconomic data flow that could be taken into consideration in Euro area published from ZEW, a nonprofit economic research institution based in Mannheim, Germany. In December, ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the relative six-month economic outlook for euro area, increased from -1.0 to 11.2. The same rate for Germany was recorded as 10.7, the highest level since the beginning of 2018. "[The rise] rests on the hope that German exports and private consumption will develop better than previously thought. The economy is still fragile," said Achim Wambach, president of ZEW, in a statement after the data was published. On the other side, European Council President Charles Michel said they would debate Brexit after the UK election.

US

U.S. Department of Commerce made a statement considering the allegations that Turkey exports dry cherry to the United States far below the market value and said that the firms selling dry cherry to the USA get 204% incentives and thus, additional tariffs may be imposed on the Turkish cherry. In addition, US media reported that the defense budget bill agreed by U.S. House Committee on Armed Services would ban the transfer of F-35 fighter jets and F-35 support equipment to Turkey. On the frontline of the trade talks, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue said that President Trump wants China to step in to stop new tariffs planned to be introduced on Chinese goods on December 15.

Britain

On the last trading day, the macroeconomic calendar in Britain was quite busy due to the data published by the Office for National Statistics. In the third quarter, the UK economy did not change compared to the previous quarter, yet it grew 0.7 percent compared to the same quarter last year, according to ONS data. The UK Industrial production rose 0.1 percent in October compared to the previous month. However, it contracted 1.3 percent compared to the same month last year, according to the ONS. In addition, UK Manufacturing production rose 0.2 percent (MoM), yet it declined 1.2 percent on the annual basis. The foreign trade deficit in October was 14.49 billion pounds.  

Asia & Turkey

We started the second trading day of the week in Asian markets, with a stream of macroeconomic data coming from China. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4 percent in November, above the expectations of 0.1 percent, compared to the previous month. CPI also rose 4.5 percent (YoY) and recorded in line with expectations, according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. PPI fell 1.4 percent in November compared to the same month last year. In addition, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman said that the U.S. administration should drop the Cold War logic for stable relations between the two countries. The statement of the Minister of Economy Japan was significant. October's sales tax hike dropped the retail consumption overall, but the weakness in retail consumption is not as severe as the one experienced after the sales tax hike in April 2014, the Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said. Nishimura further stressed that he expects Japan's economy to slowly recover. In Turkey, there was no significant macroeconomic and news flow that could affect pricing.


Indicators

MSCI iShared ETF’s

Msciisharedetfs
MSCI iShared ETF’sDownload Image

MSCI ETF indices are used for measuring the performance of a stock market located within a certain region. Prior to take any actions regarding the relevant region, stock market investment funds follow up the ETF yields and risk measurement.

10Y Bond Yields

10Ybondyields
10Y Bond YieldsDownload Image

Yields of the government bonds are determined by trading in a second market. High yields mean that the government will pay off high interest rates. On the other hand, low yields mean that the government will pay off lower interest rates.


US Index

USIndex

USDX encountered with a resistance at the 50-period exponential moving average and retreated. Now, it is trying to recover. We expect the 50-period exponential moving average indicating 97.70 level to be exceeded in terms of recovery demand in the index on the new trading day. If this level can be broken, 97.85 and then, 98.00 resistance levels will be on our radar. 97.40 and 97.25 supports might be followed in decreases that may occur if the recovery request will be lack of volume.  

Support97.4097.2597.10
Resistance97.7097.8598.00

Parities

EURUSD

The parity took reaction at 200-period weighted moving average of 1.1050 and recovered and the pricing movements are within the ascending wedge pattern. If the reaction, which the parity takes, can exceed 1.1110 resistance above by gaining volume on the new trading day, then the rises can follow 1.1130 and then, the upper barrier of the wedge. If the reactions will be lack of volume, the price will be decreased below the ascending channel. In this case, the sales may deepen towards 1.1050 and 1.1020 support levels, located below 1.1070.  

Support1.10701.10501.1020
Resistance1.11101.11301.1150

USDTRY

USDTRY broke the rectangular pattern with the aggressive rises and encountered with the profit realizations. The parity is getting ready for a new channel pricing in this area and due to the nature of the pattern, we expect it to stay above 5.7800 level indicated by the upper barrier of the rectangle. In this context, unless the price decreases below 5.7800 on the new trading day, the upward movements may reach 5.8200 and 5.8400 resistance levels. On the other hand, in possible downward movements below 5.7800 level, 5.7600 indicated by the 50-period simple moving average will be on our radar as the area for responses.  

Support5.78005.76005.7200
Resistance5.82005.84005.8600

GBPUSD

The parity tested the highest level of the last 8 months and the desire to rise appears to be weakening. The parity completed the pennant pattern with the help of the movements in favour of pound. 1.3100 intermediate support level will be on our radar in order to maintain the parity's upward potential led by the nature of the pattern. As closings above this level become permanent, the desire to increase can also reach 1.3180 and 1.3220 resistance levels. In downward movements, 1.3070 support will be on our radar, when the intermediate support 1.3100 is broken.  

Support1.31001.30701.3040
Resistance1.31801.32201.3250

USDJPY

Having tested the lower barrier of the channel with the help of trading in favor of yen, the parity faced with resistance at 108.80 indicated by the 200-period exponential moving average, while putting some effort to recover. If 200-period exponential moving average, which we take as basis for the start of the recovery movements, is exceeded, the upward movements may reach 109.00 and 109.30 resistance levels respectively. If 108.80 couldn't be exceeded, the downward movements might be under pressure at the lower barrier of the channel.  

Support108.50108.30108.00
Resistance109.00109.30109.60

Commodities

XAUUSD

The commodity recovered thanks to the responses taken at the lower barrier of the minor channel and tries to move towards the upper barrier again. If the desire for recovery continues on the new trading day, 1468 resistance will be on our radar. If this level is also broken, we will closely follow the critical barrier of 1475 level. In downward movements below the minor channel, the lower barrier of the wedge is in a suitable position for new responses.  

Support146014541450
Resistance146814751480

US OIL

The commodity headed towards the upper barrier of the ascending channel and appears to be balanced in by losing volume in this area. If the volume losses continue on the new trading day, 58.20 level indicated by the 50-period exponential moving average will be on our radar. If this level can be broken, the retreats can reach 57.50 and then, 56.80 support levels. If the commodity tries to rise again, we expect it to break 59.40 resistance level with strong movements.  

Support58.2057.5056.80
Resistance59.4060.0060.50

XAGUSD

The commodity tested the lower barrier of the descending wedge, which is the 200-period exponential moving average indicating 16.60. Then, it encountered with purchases in response and now, it is trying to recover from this area. On the new trading day, the commodity may face with purchases in response and if these purchases gain volume and 16.70 resistance level is exceeded, the desire to increase may led the precious metal to 16.84 and then, 17.00 resistance levels. 16.50 and 16.35 support levels will be on our radar in short-term downward movements.  

Support16.5016.3516.20
Resistance16.7016.8417.00

Indices

DAX30

DAX Index tried to reach the area below Fibonacci fan line of 61.8 percent. If we observe purchases in response at the Fibonacci fan line of 61.8 percent, the responses, on the new trading day, can gain volume and then, exceed 13 100 resistance. In this case, it may reach 13 170 and 13 250 resistance levels respectively. The selling movements could accelerate towards 13 000 and 12 920 support levels if the index has no volume of purchases in responses and moves for the closings below Fibonacci fan line of 61.8.  

Support130001292012840
Resistance131001317013250

S&P500

SP500 index was looking to gain value in the ascending wedge pattern, yet it lost the volume. If it holds above 3 100 level indicated by the 50-period weighted moving average, we expect the index to increase. In addition, if it can test 3 155 resistance located above, 3 170 resistance level indicated by the upper barrier of the wedge will be on our radar. In strong decreases below the intermediate support of 3 100 level, the index may reach 3 100 and the wedge pattern might be completed.  

Support312531003080
Resistance315531703190

Cryptos

BTCUSD

Advancing in a descending wedge pattern, Bitcoin couldn't end its search for direction due to the pressure it is experiencing at 7 200 barrier. In case the movements are closed above 7 200 barrier on the new trading day, 7 700 and 8 300 resistance levels might be the new targets in the desire to increase. In decreases below the critical level of 7 200, the selling movements may reach 6 800 and 6 400 support levels.  

Support680064006200
Resistance770083008700

Economic Calendar

CountryTime (GMT)Action
usa 11:00 OPEC Monthly Report
usa 13:30 CPI - Consumer Price Index (Annual) (Nov)
usa 13:30 Consumer Price Index (Monthly) (Nov)
usa 13:30 Consumer Price Index Excluding Food and Energy (Monthly) (Nov)
usa 13:30 Consumer Price Index (Annual) ( Nov )
usa 13:30 Consumer Price Index Excluding Food and Energy (Annual) ( Nov )
usa 15:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change ( Dec 6 )
usa 19:00 Monthly Budget Statement ( Nov
usa 19:00 FOMC Economic Projections Report
usa 19:00 FED Interest Rate Decision
usa 19:00 FED Monetary Policy Statement
usa 19:30 FOMC Press conference

Central Bank Calendar

RegionMeeting DateActionCurrent Interest Rate
usa 11.12.2019 Fed Interest Rate Decision%1,50-.%1,75
eu 12.12.2019 ECB Interest Rate Decision-%0,50

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